Sold TBT Dec$70p after its pullback for 2 months

TBT had risen for 4 months then started falling. Its price is around the support of an uptrending 200 DMA at $70. Since I expect an rising interest rate environment over the longer term, I sold Dec$70 put for $1.23 to get a cost of $68.77 in case I get assigned.

The average implied volatility shown in the chart appears to follow the price performance of TBT, due to its inverse relationship with market. This is different from other regular stocks. TOS option chain window indicated the covered return rate of 11.5% for this trade.

Similar to USO, TBT has a relative loose correlation with stock market. This gives me an opportunity to play the overheated market in the short team.

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Are there any ETF's remaining to be heated as SPY breaking into new highs

With the red hot market today, are there anything left with good potential for long term investment but not too overbought? I found two ETF's that looked interesting: USO (Crude oil) & DXJ (Japanese stock market). Both of them have smaller correlations with the US stock market performance.

With energy stocks performing well and US dollar falling, I don't think USO will keep dropping, particularly if Chinese economy remains healthy. My guess of the weak USO is due to the improved prospects of peace in middle east (Iran). I read one article stating oil price could drop 20% or more if Iran's oil is available. That may lead USO to $29 level from current $36.45, a $7.00 drop. At current option price, it will take about 1 year of selling call options for around $0.40 premiums to break-even, if one enters USO from selling puts with a break-even price of around $35.00. With the outline shown in the study, it's probably worth try to sell some puts on USO soon if USO price rises next day.

DXJ chart looks similar to that of EWJ which follows the Japanese stock market index I believe. I choose DXJ because it's of higher price with more option strikes. My understanding is that they have an export driven economy which benefit from falling yen FXY: It's beneficial for the Japanese market if US dollar UUP behaves stronger than FXY. The low interest rate environment in Japan should be reflected in the rising of Japanese bond GJBL. As shown in the 2nd page of the study, Japanese bound ETF JGBL is currently outperforming US Bond. So it looks to me that Japanese market may continue to perform well since it shot up about one year ago when the current Japanese prime minister adopted a new economic policy to pump even more money into its already heavy debt economy.

A study on Chinese ETF's

Since I bought HAO about 4 weeks ago, it was doing well as US market had some turbulence because American politicians played their threatening games for government closure and national debt ceiling. But I need to clarify my long term exit criteria for HAO. As part of my study for Chinese stock market conditions, I found the following interesting ETF's that are helpful to determine the health of China's economic status as reflected by Wall street.

Besides the Chinese big caps in FXI, we have the small cap HAO and Chinese technology CQQQ representing broad Chinese market. The Chinese bull market is led by the technology ETF CQQQ as it has rose over 50% year today. The Chinese real estate ETF TAO is lagging SPX but outperformed US real estate IYR (TAO provides no dividend) at this time. The thinly-traded China Energy ETF CHIE also showed an uptrend in the last 3 month.

The Chinese bond ETF DSUM has outperformed US bond ETF BOND manged by the bond king Bill Gross in the last 6 month. The Chinese Yuan ETF CYB outperform US dollar UUP and bond BOND in the same period. I think the Yuan price indicates longer term economic trends in China than the stock market prices.

If the Chinese economy is to collapse, I would expect the Chinese stock market ETF FXI, and bond market DSUM and the Yuan CYB to fall at the same time. If they don't drop at the same time, it's telling me that the Chinese economic may be healthy overall in the long run.

Additionally, Chinese economy has strong impact on commodities DBC and their producing countries like Australia EWA and its currency FXA. These ETF's are likely to lag the Chinese counterparts in time and to perform well later if Chinese ETF's gets real hot.